Ted Knutson
Variance Betting · The Transfer Flow · @mixedknuts
Variance Betting publishes football selections through The Transfer Flow. Its performance updates use changing stakes, while an external trial describes mixed price access; neither establishes typical subscriber profit after fees.
By SharpCheck · Published · Updated · Sources checked · Research methods
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Key facts
- Service identity
- Launched in September 2024, initially covering the Premier League and Championship. The archive includes other competitions and contributions from Jason Anderson as well as Ted Knutson. Variance Betting archive
- Reported profit
- A 24 March 2025 update reported $6,571 profit across competitions and changing stakes. This is an operator claim, not a fixed-stake return or current lifetime total. Dated operator performance update
- Following prices
- An external trial described sometimes finding better odds and sometimes finding prices had shortened. It did not establish a measured subscriber price-capture rate. External service trial
Evidence
A small external review sample.
Ted Knutson launched the Variance Betting subscription newsletter through The Transfer Flow on 13 September 2024, initially covering the Premier League and Championship. The launch describes model-based analysis supplemented by team news and football knowledge.
Check the author and competition
The current archive also lists Champions League and MLS coverage, with posts by Ted and Jason Anderson. A service-wide result should not automatically be attributed entirely to Ted.
Browse the newsletter archive ↗What we have checked
Official service information, a public performance discussion and one external review. A complete selection ledger and a representative sample of subscriber experiences have not been verified. Current subscription pricing has not been confirmed at checkout.
Results
Written P/L updates are publicly available
In his 24 March 2025 update, Ted reported a total profit of $6,571 across Premier League, Championship and Champions League bets. He explicitly said stakes changed during the season. This is a historical operator claim, not an independently audited or current return.
Read the dated performance update ↗
Limits of the published account
Ted says his compilation includes newsletter selections and adjustments made on social media. He also discusses weaknesses in his totals betting. Reconciling the record would require those original releases and amendments, including losing and void bets.
What remains unverified
Completeness of the history, available odds at release, subscriber placements, fees and exchange commission. Public written summaries provide useful evidence, but do not establish the net return a subscriber could reproduce.
Followability
The price taken still matters
The launch favours low-margin bookmakers and comparing prices across accounts. It presents the newsletter as Ted’s own analysis and wagers, rather than a promise of identical returns for followers.
One reviewer’s experience
Smart Sports Trader reported using the service for a couple of months. Some selections shortened beyond the reviewer’s acceptable price, while others were available at better odds than advised. No measured price-match rate or complete subscriber bet log accompanies that account.
Read the external review ↗A useful following trial
Record receipt time, the advised line and odds, actual available odds, accepted stakes and missed selections. Include subscription costs and any exchange commission. We have not run that trial.
Reviews
One published review, with commercial context
Smart Sports Trader
External editorial reviewThe review is favourable about the analysis and overall service, while acknowledging price movement. Its quoted season results come from service updates; they are not a separate audited trial.
The publisher carries an affiliate disclosure advising readers to assume links may earn commission, and the review includes a join button. Treat this as a commercial review, not an unaffiliated customer survey. A publication date was not established from the accessible page.
Read the review and disclosure ↗X and Reddit searches
Searches covered Ted Knutson, @mixedknuts, Variance Betting and The Transfer Flow, including X/Twitter and Reddit. No substantive subscriber review from either platform was located for this assessment. The direct X profile could not be retrieved; search visibility is incomplete.
Operator posts and podcast promotions are not customer reviews. The lack of a usable result does not establish that complaints or other feedback do not exist.
Ted’s X profile ↗Reddit discussion of the free publication · 25 April 2025
A Chelsea subreddit thread discussing a Transfer Flow article drew mixed reactions. Some commenters praised the analysis; others challenged the choice of statistics, alternative explanations and the betting promotion within the article.
This concerns The Transfer Flow’s free editorial content, not a verified Variance Betting subscription experience or a review of Ted’s returns. It is included as publication context only.
Read the discussion and replies ↗